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A |     编辑：wtz    美国的动作    美国一边挥出制裁“大棒”，要求各国减少与伊朗经济往来，伊朗则公开回应不会轻易屈服，另一边联合国开始介入霍尔木兹海峡危机，试图避免能源和粮食运输受到更大冲击，表面看，这是美国与伊朗之间的经济对抗，但往深处看，它已经影响到全球贸易链条。        据报道，美国财政部长贝森特在新闻发布会上表示，美国总统特朗普正在与多个国家领导人沟通，要求停止与伊朗的经济联系。    Europhile Conservative MPs have poor prospects in the race already underway to replace Prime Minister Boris Johnson, according to a British academic.,With BoJo making a slow-motion exit from Downing Street, ministers and backbenchers alike are throwing their hats into the ring for the dual role of party leader and PM.,Johnson announced his resignation as Tory leader on Thursday — pre-empting mooted moves to cut the 'grace period' following an unsuccessful no-confidence vote, which he narrowly survived in June. The famous 'BoJo mojo' was finally overcome by the scandal over Deputy Chief Whip Chris Pincher drunkenly groping two men at an exclusive private member's club.,Each candidate to replace BoJo needs the nomination of at least eight fellow Tory MPs. Hot tips so far include Johnson loyalists Foreign Secretary Liz Truss and Defence Secretary Ben Wallace, along with Junior Trade Policy Minister Penny Mordaunt — who surprised some by not joining the wave of protest resignations from government — and Rishi Sunak, who led the revolt by quitting as chancellor.,Alistair Jones, associate professor of politics at Leicester's De Montfort University, told Sputnik that the leadership contest to replace the "figurehead" Johnson was still up in the air.,"The situation is going to be very interesting in British politics as we will look to see how many Conservative MPs want to stand to become the party leader and ultimately Prime Minister," he says.,“Now, within the Cabinet, we will see the likes of Liz Truss, [and Home Secretary] Priti Patel putting their names forward, also most likely [Deputy PM] Dominic Raab. Outside of the Cabinet, former minister Michael Gove will also probably put his name forward and then there'll be some other outsiders who are not in the government, such as Penny Mordaunt and Steve Baker.”,But strident remainer and anti-Russia war hawk Tom Tugendhat, chairman of the Commons Foreign Affairs Committee, was fastest out of the traps with five nominations under his belt already.,Professor Jones says that Mordaunt and Steve Baker, who is the deputy chairman of the anti-lockdown COVID Recovery Group and former chairman of the pro-Brexit European Research Group, are the ones to watch.,"Both of them are ardent Brexiteers and it is likely to be an ardent Brexiteer that is going to be elected as leader of the Conservative Party," he points out.,Steve Baker sets out why he would make a good Prime Minister, saying he is very popular with Conservative Home members and he's been told he's popular with the public.Piers challenges him that he might have to "acknowledge reality".@piersmorgan | #PiersMorganUncensored pic.twitter.com/e9qWS1Ae2k— Piers Morgan Uncensored (@PiersUncensored) July 7, 2022,The Eurosceptic underdogs may overtake heavyweights like Jeremy Hunt, the former foreign secretary who was runner-up to Johnson in the 2019 leadership contest to replace Theresa May.,"Jeremy Hunt, someone that people would like to see possibly elected as party leader as a safe pair of hands because he wasn't a Brexiteer, is not likely to go far," Jones says. "So the question will be how much infighting there is going to be within the Conservative Party until they get a leader elected, and then the extent to which that leader is able to unify the party.",BoJo’s Resignation: How Will Johnson’s Successor Be Picked?11:03 GMT,The academic stresses that leadership contests are always extremely polarizing. "You either support candidate number one or candidate number two when you get to the last two and quite often the two do not see eye to eye," he says.,"There could be an awful hangover for the Conservative Party after this leadership election," Jones warns. "The question will be the extent to which Boris Johnson's legacy is a divided party, and that stays with the party until the next general election" — which might not be until January 2025.。美国方面希望通过金融限制、贸易压力等方式进一步削弱伊朗经济活动空间，这也是华盛顿长期以来对伊朗施压政策的一部分。        我认为，美国此次释放出的信号，重点并不仅仅是针对伊朗本身，而是在测试国际社会对于单边制裁政策的接受程度。现代经济体系高度 interconnected，一个国家的金融和贸易网络很难完全被切断，制裁真正产生的效果，往往取决于国际合作程度以及各方利益平衡。        面对美国压力，伊朗经济和财政部长马达尼扎德表示，伊朗政府长期以来已经为应对制裁做准备，并认为美国不可能“完全切断”伊朗的金融和贸易联系。他强调，如果美国采取进一步行动，伊朗也会作出回应。        伊朗方面的表态，体现出德黑兰面对外部压力时坚持维持经济自主空间的立场。在我看来，美伊之间的经济较量，本质上是一场耐力竞争。

B | 美国拥有强大的金融体系和美元影响力，这是其制裁工具的重要基础，但伊朗也并非毫无应对空间。        长期制裁环境下，伊朗已经建立了一套降低外部依赖的经济模式，包括调整贸易方向、寻找替代金融渠道等。不过，制裁与反制裁的影响并不会只停留在两国之间。全球经济最担心的是局势进一步外溢，尤其是霍尔木兹海峡这样的关键航运通道受到影响。    联合国秘书长古特雷斯表示，中东冲突以及俄乌冲突正在通过扰乱海上航运，对全球贸易、能源和粮食供应造成严重影响。        受到了高度关注    霍尔木兹海峡的重要性在于，它连接波斯湾与阿曼湾，是全球能源运输的重要通道。大量石油、天然气以及相关工业原材料运输都经过这里，一旦航运风险增加，影响的不只是产油国和消费国，还会通过能源价格、运输成本影响普通消费者。        我觉得，国际社会真正关注的焦点，并不是某一次制裁声明本身，而是危机是否会演变成更广泛的经济震荡。过去多次地区冲突已经证明，全球化时代没有任何国家能够完全置身事外，能源价格上涨可能影响制造业，运输成本增加可能推高商品价格，最终都会传导到普通人的生活。

C |         联合国方面已经采取行动。古特雷斯表示，为应对霍尔木兹海峡危机，联合国成立了相关工作组，计划通过登记、核查、监测等机制，降低航运风险，并优先保障化肥及相关原材料运输。    这一举措释放出一个信号，那就是国际组织正在尝试把冲突影响控制在一定范围内，联合国并不能替代各方解决政治分歧，但在保障民用航运、维护关键物资流通方面，可以发挥协调作用。        从现实角度看，霍尔木兹海峡危机之所以受到高度关注，是因为它连接的是全球经济的重要节点，能源供应、粮食生产、工业制造，这些领域之间存在复杂联系，比如化肥运输受阻，会影响农业生产成本，而农业成本变化又可能影响粮食价格。        美伊局势的走向    我认为，当前国际社会面临的最大挑战，是如何避免安全问题进一步冲击经济秩序，国家之间存在竞争和矛盾很正常，但如果竞争最终演变为全球供应链的不稳定，承担压力的往往不仅是政府和企业，还有普通民众。        美国希望通过经济压力迫使伊朗改变政策，伊朗则希望证明自身能够承受外部压力。双方立场短期内很难快速改变，但历史经验表明，长期对抗通常不会带来真正赢家，更多时候留下的是经济损失和地区不稳定。        当然，国际关系中的矛盾不会因为一次谈判或者一次制裁就消失，美伊之间围绕核问题、安全利益、地区影响力等方面存在长期分歧，这些问题背后涉及多个国家利益，也决定了局势走向不会简单。        如今，联合国介入霍尔木兹海峡危机，更多是在为全球贸易安全争取缓冲空间。如何降低航运风险、保障能源和粮食供应，比单纯讨论谁占优势更加现实。    我认为，真正成熟的国际竞争，不应该让全球经济成为冲突的代价，世界各国最终都需要面对一个事实：海洋航线、能源供应和贸易网络早已把各国连接在一起，一个地区的不稳定，可能影响全球市场的每一个角落。        结语：美伊博弈还会继续，但霍尔木兹海峡提醒世界，和平与稳定不仅是政治目标，也是全球经济运行的基础。    

     信息来源：     央视新闻——2026年8月25日——国际新闻早知道丨美就制裁伊朗开发布会伊强硬回应 联合国成立工作组应对霍尔木兹海峡危机     同花顺财经——2026年8月25日——重磅！美宣布对伊朗实施“经济孤立”新措施！伊朗称回应将比以往更加坚决！以总理曝伊朗企图暗杀其子！油价，大跌！A股，将进入新阶段？    

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